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FUTURES THINKING
Transforming the system
Futures Thinking
We live in a world of complexity and uncertainty. We need to continuously navigate our way from our current situation to one that might be thought of as an aspirational future – the world in which we would like to live. The journey between these two worlds is often transformational for those on the journey and the landscapes they navigate and with which they interact. Simple forecasting or generating traditional roadmaps will not suffice. We need pathways which we can adapt as the future emerges. And to help us find and make best use of those pathways we need tools that will optimise our agency and its impact as we go.
Futures thinking has to go past just thinking and enable the creation of actions and help them to be brought into play to encourage the unfolding of the aspirational future.
We live in a world of complexity and uncertainty. We need to continuously navigate our way from our current situation to one that might be thought of as an aspirational future – the world in which we would like to live. The journey between these two worlds is often transformational for those on the journey and the landscapes they navigate and with which they interact.
This is the world of futures thinking. Roadmaps, scenarios, forecasts, and pathways are four groups of methodologies associated with futures thinking. The use and value of these vary according to (1) the extent to which you — the decision maker — have agency (i.e., the ability to affect outcomes) and (2) the degree of uncertainty you face in making that decision.
When you have low influence and low uncertainty (i.e.: low complexity and high predictability), forecasts are appropriate. These are simple trend analysis taking historic data and project where it will go assuming the context does not change.
Roadmaps are appropriate for higher agency with low uncertainty. This is often part of the planning tools used for organizations where managers typically have significant control over resources allocation and design of processes.
With low influence and high uncertainty, scenarios are appropriate. This approach produces descriptions of possible futures in response to a question. To be effective, scenarios must be plausible, consistent and offer insights into the future. Often they are produced as a 2 x 2 matrix with high/low importance of driving forces and high/low level of uncertainties.
Pathways with high uncertainty and high capacity to take action, development of pathways is possible. The uncertainty is addressed by defining a desired future, the current reality, and pathways to move towards the desired future. Both the pathways and description of the desired future will change with experience.
Planning Versus Designing
Designing, rather than planning, is particularly appropriate to move to the desired future. The U.S. Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency Field Manual Paperback explains:
“Planning applies established procedures to solve a largely understood problem within an accepted framework. Design, however, inquires into the nature of a problem to conceive a framework for solving that problem. In general, planning is problem solving, while design is problem setting. Where planning focuses on generating a plan—a series of executable actions—design focuses on learning about the nature of an unfamiliar problem.”
Three Horizons:
A core method for this kind of work is Three Horizons.
We can use this with small groups or large, online or face to face as and when circumstances allow. We facilitate a group to generate a shared view of the current system on which they are focused – the first horizon, or Horizon One. This will include a systemic view of what is driving this horizon and holding it back. The Third Horizon is the aspirational future where Horizon One has been transformed. We help the group generate their shared view of this aspirational world. The transformational journey between Horizons One and Three is the second horizon – Horizon Two. This is the transformational and adaptive pathway to Horizon Three. It is in Horizon Two that the issues of Horizon One are addressed without destroying the essential aspects of Horizon One that we will need into the future.
In this way of thinking the three horizons are not sequential. All three are present at any time, all the time. They will be in varying degrees of emergence or change – this is not a static picture. See an example.
